Online prediction platforms face allegations of insider information misuse following a series of massive wins just before major geopolitical events.

Prior to the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran that stripped Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei of power, a trade on the Polymarket platform yielded a profit of approximately $553,000.

Many other accounts placed bets totaling up to $500 million regarding an Iranian attack scenario.

A similar situation occurred before the operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Before the operation took place, an anonymous user bet $32,000 on the possibility of his arrest and netted over $400,000.

Experts suggest that sudden large inflows of capital from new wallets often reflect access to early information.

Trader Evan Semet said tracking unusual trades helped him earn quick profits when he noticed signs of “smart money.”

Not just political events, entertainment shows face similar suspicions. On the Kalshi platform, players placed near-certain bets on the elimination of a contestant in a pre-recorded TV show.

Events like the Oscars or the Super Bowl halftime show have also become targets, as results can be leaked before being announced.

Former U.S. official Mick Mulvaney warned that these markets could pose security risks, as foreign intelligence agencies monitor data to speculate on military activities.

Some U.S. lawmakers have proposed legislation to ban trades involving military activities and sensitive federal functions.

Meanwhile, the Kalshi platform stated it is reviewing over 200 cases of suspected violations and asserted it has oversight mechanisms in place.

However, the operational model of prediction markets continues to fuel controversy, as those with early information can reap huge profits at the expense of others.

In 2025, the total transaction value on these platforms exceeded $44 billion, showing a growing scale despite an incomplete legal framework.

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